Quote: Viktor Frankl

If we present man with a concept of man that is not true, we will corrupt him.  When we present him as an automation of reflexes, as a mind machine, as a bundle of instincts, as a pawn of drives and reactions, as a mere product of heredity and environment, we feed the nihilism to which man is in any case prone.  I became acquainted with the last stages of corruption in my second concentration camp: Auschwitz.  The gas chambers of Auschwitz were the ultimate consequence of the theory that man is nothing more than the product of heredity and environment or as the Nazis like to say, "of blood and soil."  I am absolutely convinced the gas chambers of Auschwitz, Treblinka, and Majdanek were ultimately prepared not in some ministry of defense or other in Berlin, but rather at the desks and lecture halls of nihilistic scientists and philosophers.
-Viktor Frankl

Spaced Apart

One might think people in a large community have a higher chance of making friends; yet people still fall through the cracks.  In fact we associated such cracks with large organizations not small.  The community may fault such individuals as socially awkward, shy, introverted, or generally having poor social skills.  These individuals in turn could fault the community as insular, homogenous, xenophobic, exclusive, ignorant/unenlightened, or generally a poor fit.  These may be at play; however social structure offers another factor.

Theory
Social theory observes that people have the capacity to make and maintain around eight quality friendships, more for extroverts, less for introverts.  (Is there a name for this general rule?).  Upon entry into a new environment, an individual typically fills these eight slots within the first two months.  That can explain the relative easy with making friends at the start of a new school term or the founding of a new community.  In this early period, people are relationally more open and then more closed as slots are maxed.  However, not everyone fills their slots by this two-month deadline and "fall through" can occur.  So do communities becoming more exclusive or xenophobic with time?  Not necessarily as they may just have maxed their emotional capacity to relate, and thus are structurally less welcoming.  Likewise after seeking friends for two months, do individuals simply become exhausted from looking?

Faltering
If nine people each have eight slots for friendship and each person's eight slots are filled exactly by the other eight, there is no room for a 10th addition, especially after two months from the time the 9th person joins.  Person #11 would at least have #10, if #10 hadn't already given up on the community.  (Are #11 and #10 then casualties of circumstance?)  Most communities want to see growth, but numbers are insufficient if they're just accruing dissatisfied constituents.  Thus no matter the size of the community there is the risk of faltering growth each time existing members have already maxed their eights.

Questions, Experimentation
How then does a community organize to maintain capacity for meaningful relationships among established members and newcomers?  I am not a social scientist, therefore I do not know the work that has been done on this front.  I do believe there needs to be an elaboration of this eight-friends theory.  Does a person generally establish a set of eight friends for each new community they become a part of?  What happens to the relational bonds of person's previous eight when one joins a new community?  If people actually establish multiple sets of eights without sacrificing quality, then it stand that a community organizer can periodically shuffle or reshuffle subgroups of people to allow for periodic resets and new eights to be established.  This allows people the opportunity to make friends in a smaller group setting (less likely to have cracks); while giving people an out of friends to fall back on in the larger community.  Then the next detail is periodicity.  How long after a two-month incubation period of slot filling does a relationships become meaningful and of lasting quality.  Would reshuffling nullify the relational bonds that were just established?  This of course would be a grand experiment requiring a willingness of participants.

Predicted Growth of World's Cities

McKinsey Global Institute and Foreign Policy (FP) magazine published a list (Link) predicting the next decade's 75 most dynamic cities in terms of absolute dollar increase in GDP.  To make the list of 75, a city had to have at least an absolute increase in GDP of $100.2 billion for the 15-year projection.  This list can be looked at in several ways [When I have time, I hope to add figures to help illustrate]:

1. GDP Growth.  China will witness the largest growth in the world with 15 of the top 30 ranked cities.  Grouping by nation shows that 29 (38.7%) are predicted to be cities in China, 13 (17.3%) U.S., 4 Brazil, 3 India, 2 Australia, 2 Turkey, 2 Saudi Arabia.  South East Asia and other parts of South America will also exhibit several cities of growth.

  In terms of rate of growth (percent increase in GDP), China absolutely dominates the list with 27 of the 30 fastest growing cities (the three non-Chinese cities being Bangalore #18, Delhi #23, and Luanda #27).  Perhaps cities do not paint the complete picture, as the IMF, The Economist, and Economy Watch all point out the rapid pace of growth by emerging economies, particularly by African nations.  Luanda, Angola is the sole African city to make the FP list.  In fact for the last decade, Angola as a nation beat even China in GDP growth percentage (China's average annual GDP grew at 10.5%, whereas Angola grew at a pace of 11.1%).  The Economist forecasts that seven African nations will rank in the top ten positions for annual GDP growth % over the next few years:  Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Congo, Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria.  China, India, and Vietnam complete the list.

2. Absolute GDP.  New York City and Tokyo will retain the top two spots in absolute GDP.  Underlined are the cities that drop off from or join the top ten.
The top 10 earning cities of 2010: Tokyo, New York, Paris, London, Los Angeles, Chicago, Rhine-Ruhr, São Paulo, Washington, Houston.
The predicted top 10 earning cities of 2025: Tokyo, New York, Shanghai, Los Angeles, Beijing, London, Paris, São Paulo, Moscow, Chicago.

Consistent with China's rise, the Economist predicts that China's overall GDP will match and then overtake that of the U.S. some time between 2018 and 2021.

3. Population. Tokyo and Shanghai would retain the top two spots in absolute population with over 30 million expected each.  This is followed by five cities that will or already do exceed 20 million people: Beijing, São Paulo, Mumbai, Mexico City, and Delhi.  Beijing is expected to add nearly 11 million to their population in the 15 years between 2015 and 2025.  In this same period, Rhine-Ruhr, Germany and Seoul, South Korea are expected to decrease in population by 200,000 and 300,000 people, respectively.

  As this list was created by GDP growth rank, not all large cities made the cut.  Cross-referencing this economic list with the 75 most populous cities (List as of 7-1-2012) provides an off-the-cuff set of locations potentially at-risk for stagnation and the problems associated with urbanization (homelessness, traffic, pollution, limited access to medical/ economic/ educational opportunities and resources).  The cross reference shows that all 12 of China's current most populous cities will experience significant economic growth.  There is also significant overlap for the 12 largest U.S. cities, except for Detroit and Boston which are not predicted to grow as much.  India has nine of the world's 75 most populous cities.  Three made the FP list:  Bangalore, Mumbai, and Delhi. These cities represent 3.5% of the India's population and may find themselves buoying much of the nation's economy for the next decade or exhibiting further economic disparities.  Still India's populous neighbors of Bangladesh and Pakistan had no cities that make the FP list.  Tokyo is the only large Japanese city predicted to have significant growth; nonetheless the situation is quite different from India.  Tokyo represents 28.4% of Japan's entire population with population growth slowing to less than 1%.  This suggests that Tokyo already underpins much of Japan's economy and will probably continue to do so for the next decade.  The concern for Japan is how long can this continue with its aging population.

4. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP = GDP per capita).  As a measure of standard of living, the PPP is predicted to remain highest, in order, for Doha, Abu Dhabi, San Francisco, Washington, and New York.  Paris however will drop from the top five to number nine while Kuwait City enters the top five.  The U.S. will continue to have some of the highest standards of living maintaining 13 of the top 30 rankings for PPP.  China will not rank until Hong Kong at #27, which is not much different from its #26 position in 2010.  China then has a block of ranking cities starting with Tianjin #31 in 2025 as compared to a block of cities start with Dalian #41 in 2010.  This shows that apart from Hong Kong, there would be a general rise in PPP rankings for the listed Chinese cities in the next decade.  In contrast, India's three ranking growth cities would remain in the bottom for PPP for these 75 cities.


In summary, the U.S. as a whole remains an economic bastion with expectations for continued growth and high living standards, but the story for the next decade appears to belong to emerging/newly industrialized economies, particularly China which will see simultaneous growth in population and economy, an economy poised to rapidly surpass that of the U.S.

On Apple Secrecy

Apple is notorious for its secrecy and perhaps paranoia; however consider the industry's history, Apple's behavior may not be so far fetched.

1. Apple product line is so streamline that every single product has make-or-break status.  The role of each product has a ripple effect on the Apple ecosystem of accessory makers, app developers, and content generators.

2. Apple has indicated that leaks regarding products in development cut into revenue from current product models as consumers hold off on purchases in anticipation of next generation products.

3. Online blogs and journalists secure leaks from informants.  Who makes more reliable informants than employees and suppliers?  Accordingly Apple's hatches are batten down on its very own employees.  They are often kept in the dark on future developments or their roles can be so compartmentalized that they remain blind to the elephant in the room.  Apple also has a practice of popup skunkworks inside the company as sections are cordoned off for certain eyes-only development.

4. Early previews and partnerships with other tech companies have a history of transforming into rival products.  Apple has (and Steve Jobs had) regarded such actions as back stabs from partners.
  a. Microsoft's Bill Gates was given an early preview of the Macintosh, Mac OS and mouse leading to the rival GUI in the form of Windows OS.  (Yes, Steve Jobs in turn had a previewed the mouse and GUI technology from Xerox PARC, though Apple was already developing a GUI according to L.A. Times.)
  b. Google's former CEO and current chairman, Eric Schmidt, sat on Apple's board or directors while Google was developing their own mobile operating system and phone/tablet ecosystem in the form of Android/Android phones/Chrome.
  c. More recently, Samsung as a major supplier of parts (chips and screens) for Apple's smartphones and tablets did not deny copying Apple's designs but argued that Apple's designs were so intuitive that designing products and OS similar to the iPhone/iPad/iOS were essentially unavoidable.  Samsung's chief designer for mobile products has previously noted on video his admiration of Apple products and his hopes of matching the iconic level of design.

Olympics Media Banter

The general sentiment of the 2012 London Olympic Closing Ceremony was "cheesy" and "chaotic."  I didn't have high expectations as even the 2008 Beijing Olympic Closing Ceremony started strong but devolved into a pop mishmash.  Here, I want to comment on the back and forth between media reviews of London's Opening Ceremony:
1. British outlets lauded it as "spectacular" and a "masterpiece."
2. Several U.S. outlets tossed around the word "bizarre."
3. British outlets responded that Americans just didn't "get it" or that American's were just "overwhelmed" by the spectacle.
3. Media headlines responded that Opening Ceremony was a party but only the British were invited.

Viewing the Opening on American television, perhaps my peers and I missed the full picture or were on the receiving end of poor videography/ editing.  Nonetheless, I did find it almost aloof to declare that Americans are essentially simpleminded or too ignorant to understand something that was meant for a world stage when it is just possible that the Ceremonies fell short of expectations.  I felt there was a programmatic weakness.  What was meant as a review of the history and culture of the British "Isles" spent much of it's time on pop.  Certainly, Britain has made immense and ongoing contributions to pop culture.  Yet, Danny Boyle bypassed rich cultural tomes of Britain's mythology (particularly Camelot and Celtic), great authors such as Austin, Dickens, and Tolkien, and the massive contributions to mathematics and science from the likes of Isaac Newton or to music from the likes Vaughan Williams, Elgar (whose music was featured), and Handel.

On second thought, I believe I did miss the point of Boyle's display.  Many in the U.S. approach the British expecting royalty, pomp, ceremony, legend, charm and a little elitist stuffiness.  Pair this with the Boyle's string of cinematic hits, the anticipation may have been too high.  A friend took the opinion that Opening Ceremonies have already gotten out of hand and the pageantry is too drawn out.  He may be right.  We've come to expect a performance that is full of gravitas and grandeur but Boyle chose to offer something more quirky and perhaps thematically humble.  This really did not matter because ultimately, London was a wonderful host for a successful event.

Trends in Advertising Psychology

Authenticity
Several years ago, a TED talk on the changing focus of advertisement noted that the history of advertising largely focused on product superlatives such as "better, faster, stronger."  Marketers still touts superlatives but consumers supposedly have become inured to this constant barrage.  The point of the TED talk was people now desire authenticity and the most effective marketers, entertainers, and media outlets are able to reach the modern consumer because they communicated this concept.  I believe the desire for authenticity speaks to the whole idea of the long tail, the green movement, the resurgence of Americana and Folk in music, the growing interest in yoga and barefoot running, the increased attention to treating illness through homeopathy/naturopathy/folk medicine, the push for free range/ antibiotic-free/ organic/ vegetarian-fed/ humanely-killed livestock, the successes of Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, the proliferation of farmers markets and food co-ops, Etsy, even Apple's depiction of how each component of their devices is lovingly produced.

At some point people felt their lives or experiences had become synthesized, synthetic, artificial, produced, overproduced, and controlled by brand power.  Such disillusionment may be rightly placed.  The collective response has been a nostalgic desire to reclaim or connect to a simpler, more free, purer and natural idyllic history—whether real of imaginary, whether the connection is to your history or someone else's.  The New York Times columnist David Brooks recently wrote about the massive and mad devotion of European fans to Bruce Springsteen.  He postulated on the "power of particularity."  The fixation of Springsteen's music on his roots in a New Jersey town powerfully connected people to a microcosm/paracosm because the depictions were so specific and thus more authentic.

This, at least in part, answers the question:  "How does one make the abstract concept of authenticity concrete?"  It boils down to the ability to create and draw upon paracosms.  The irony of course is that authenticity is not created but the experience of authenticity could be simulated.  Advertisers are still telling us what they offer is "better" not necessarily in an overt fashion but by specifically portraying their offers as natural, pure, and real and thus "better."

Morality
The second perhaps more powerful trend in advertising is the use of moral overtones.  This breed of better communicates, "By choosing our product you are in fact doing good, helping the local community, creating jobs, and saving the world."  With products labeled as RED for Africa, pink for breast cancer, Oprah-endorsed, fair trade, uses recycled products, reduces carbon footprint, earns carbon credits, you can pat yourself on the back and morally justify your purchases.  Having moral overtones is not intrinsically wrong but one should be aware of the force of advertising behind the products.  When we make such purchases or use such services do we actually make a difference or just pass the moral buck?

Gamification
The third trend of gamification has seen a flurry of coverage.  This speaks to two elements of psychology:  generating a sense of ownership and incentivizing use through a short term rewards system (even if the rewards are virtual as they are often).  Fantasy sports well illustrates both concepts well.  The end result is product loyalty and consumer retention.  Even though studies have shown that children whom are willing to work/ wait for the long term gain tend to be more successful (see marshmallow study), the majority of people do not demonstrate such patience.  Why not then appeal to the hyperstimulated, ADHD culture and provide a form of immediate gain?  This is not far from the impulses driving gambling: the promise of quick gain without necessarily any regard for real gains/losses.  Gamification ultimately is a tool for influencing behavior whether it is in purchases, services or promoting good habits in some examples (like education).

"Friends" as ESL

From a small sampling of conversations with students from three countries, it seems the television show that has the greatest influence on portraying American culture and teaching English to non-English speakers is the show "Friends."  I wonder if there are actual statistics on this.

Pharma Dilemma

Forbes recently calculated the cost of drug discovery to be between $3.7 and $11.8 billion per drug that actually goes to market by accounting for the total cost of research over five years and the number of drugs approved during those years.  Essentially pharmaceutical companies operate at a loss unless they make at least $3.7 billion on sales per drug.  Despite this, the article's author criticizes the pharmaceutical industry for using this cost of development to justify the high cost of drugs, calling them "dumb."  Many have recognized the increasing difficulty in developing new drugs.  For example there are a scarcity of new antibiotics in the face of ever growing antibiotic resistance and superbugs.  With the cost of healthcare shackling companies and governments, stricter price bargaining, and generic drugs vying for consumer wallets, selling medication and funding research will not get any easier.

University Professor Salaries

Chronicles of Higher learning has posted the salaries of U.S. professor salaries.

The Future of Shoes?

I'm find Nike's new Flyknit technology fascinating in the sense of "why didn't I think of that" ingenuity.  Flyknit adapts machinery used to knit socks and sweaters and applies it to knitting the entire body of a shoe using synthetic threads.  This is then attached to the sole.  This process would potentially reduce labor and shipping costs/duration as the system becomes mechanized and brings manufacturing back to the U.S. from Asia.  Not only will the number of parts and steps for making a shoe be reduced, but also customization will be increased in allowing for fine changes in layering and threading for shoes. Link.

International Food Competitions

Beyond the various iterations of reality chef competition (Iron Chef, Master Chef, and Top Chef), France had taken the reins in creating several international food-related competitions that are largely unheard of in the U.S. despite a relatively strong representation by the U.S.  France hosts international competition for cooking (Bocuse d'Or Concours, mondial de la cuisine), artisan baking/bakery (Coupe du Monde de la Boulangerie and Louis Lesaffre Cup), individual baker (Maîtres de la Boulangerie), pastries (Coupe du Monde de la Pâtisserie), and chocolate (World Chocolate Masters in partnership with Belgium).  In fact, the U.S. has won the Coupe du Monde de la Boulangerie twice.  The Wall Street Journal attributes U.S. success in recent years to foodie trends in the U.S. including increased interest in artisan baking.  I noticed that Japan also regularly demonstrates a strong showing at such competitions.

Sustainable Fish

I am a fan of Sky Full of Bacon, a fascinating online show and blog associated with the newspaper Chicago Reader.  It follows our foods from "farm to table" in the Midwest and in Chicago in particular.  Local and sustainable food sources are recurring ideas.  The other feature of this blog/show is running an ongoing challenge where chefs challenge other chefs to come up with a dish or cocktail using a strange or uncommon ingredient.

I draw attention to one particular show, Episode 11, which discusses sustainable fish supplies as opposed to consuming threatened/overfished species.  According to the World Health Organization 13.5-16.8% of animal proteins consumed by humans are derived from fish/crustacean/mollusks (with regional variation).  There has been recent awareness of the depleting fish supplies largely due to human activity whether it is from overfishing, pollution, introduction of non-native species, or possibly climate change.  In particular, the demand for white-fleshed fish has reduced the numbers of orange roughy, sea bass, and Atlantic cod; thus many have to turn to tilapia which has become nearly ubiquitous in restaurants.

The Shedd Aquarium and a company CleanFish promote U.S. farm raised fish and discourage imported fish and many wild caught fish.  They do note there are some sustainable wild caught fish: those species that have multiple spawns in a lifetime and are not overfished or the fishing quota is well regulated.  Also not all farmed fish are equal.  Farms need to be sufficiently inland so as not to interfere with wild populations and the fish habitat needs to be fully sealed off from ground water supplies.  This was also the first time that I've heard of vegetarian-fed fish.  Why vegetarian-fed?  If you use vegetable feed then you are not depleting the oceans and lakes of fish/crustaceans that could be used to feed farmed fish.  The Shedd releases a "Right Bite" list of sustainable and unsustainable fishes.  They recommend avoiding tasty fishes such as most tunas, red snapper, Mahi-mahi, orange roughy, Chilean sea bass, Atlantic cod.  They also recommend avoiding large fish that tend to have high mercury content such as sharks, swordfish, tuna, marlin, and Atlantic grouper.  There are some exceptions to the rule such as Alaskan wild caught salmon is considered better than any farmed salmon.  Recommended species include tilapia, Pacific cod, striped bass, arctic char and barramundi.