Predicted Growth of World's Cities

McKinsey Global Institute and Foreign Policy (FP) magazine published a list (Link) predicting the next decade's 75 most dynamic cities in terms of absolute dollar increase in GDP.  To make the list of 75, a city had to have at least an absolute increase in GDP of $100.2 billion for the 15-year projection.  This list can be looked at in several ways [When I have time, I hope to add figures to help illustrate]:

1. GDP Growth.  China will witness the largest growth in the world with 15 of the top 30 ranked cities.  Grouping by nation shows that 29 (38.7%) are predicted to be cities in China, 13 (17.3%) U.S., 4 Brazil, 3 India, 2 Australia, 2 Turkey, 2 Saudi Arabia.  South East Asia and other parts of South America will also exhibit several cities of growth.

  In terms of rate of growth (percent increase in GDP), China absolutely dominates the list with 27 of the 30 fastest growing cities (the three non-Chinese cities being Bangalore #18, Delhi #23, and Luanda #27).  Perhaps cities do not paint the complete picture, as the IMF, The Economist, and Economy Watch all point out the rapid pace of growth by emerging economies, particularly by African nations.  Luanda, Angola is the sole African city to make the FP list.  In fact for the last decade, Angola as a nation beat even China in GDP growth percentage (China's average annual GDP grew at 10.5%, whereas Angola grew at a pace of 11.1%).  The Economist forecasts that seven African nations will rank in the top ten positions for annual GDP growth % over the next few years:  Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Congo, Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria.  China, India, and Vietnam complete the list.

2. Absolute GDP.  New York City and Tokyo will retain the top two spots in absolute GDP.  Underlined are the cities that drop off from or join the top ten.
The top 10 earning cities of 2010: Tokyo, New York, Paris, London, Los Angeles, Chicago, Rhine-Ruhr, São Paulo, Washington, Houston.
The predicted top 10 earning cities of 2025: Tokyo, New York, Shanghai, Los Angeles, Beijing, London, Paris, São Paulo, Moscow, Chicago.

Consistent with China's rise, the Economist predicts that China's overall GDP will match and then overtake that of the U.S. some time between 2018 and 2021.

3. Population. Tokyo and Shanghai would retain the top two spots in absolute population with over 30 million expected each.  This is followed by five cities that will or already do exceed 20 million people: Beijing, São Paulo, Mumbai, Mexico City, and Delhi.  Beijing is expected to add nearly 11 million to their population in the 15 years between 2015 and 2025.  In this same period, Rhine-Ruhr, Germany and Seoul, South Korea are expected to decrease in population by 200,000 and 300,000 people, respectively.

  As this list was created by GDP growth rank, not all large cities made the cut.  Cross-referencing this economic list with the 75 most populous cities (List as of 7-1-2012) provides an off-the-cuff set of locations potentially at-risk for stagnation and the problems associated with urbanization (homelessness, traffic, pollution, limited access to medical/ economic/ educational opportunities and resources).  The cross reference shows that all 12 of China's current most populous cities will experience significant economic growth.  There is also significant overlap for the 12 largest U.S. cities, except for Detroit and Boston which are not predicted to grow as much.  India has nine of the world's 75 most populous cities.  Three made the FP list:  Bangalore, Mumbai, and Delhi. These cities represent 3.5% of the India's population and may find themselves buoying much of the nation's economy for the next decade or exhibiting further economic disparities.  Still India's populous neighbors of Bangladesh and Pakistan had no cities that make the FP list.  Tokyo is the only large Japanese city predicted to have significant growth; nonetheless the situation is quite different from India.  Tokyo represents 28.4% of Japan's entire population with population growth slowing to less than 1%.  This suggests that Tokyo already underpins much of Japan's economy and will probably continue to do so for the next decade.  The concern for Japan is how long can this continue with its aging population.

4. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP = GDP per capita).  As a measure of standard of living, the PPP is predicted to remain highest, in order, for Doha, Abu Dhabi, San Francisco, Washington, and New York.  Paris however will drop from the top five to number nine while Kuwait City enters the top five.  The U.S. will continue to have some of the highest standards of living maintaining 13 of the top 30 rankings for PPP.  China will not rank until Hong Kong at #27, which is not much different from its #26 position in 2010.  China then has a block of ranking cities starting with Tianjin #31 in 2025 as compared to a block of cities start with Dalian #41 in 2010.  This shows that apart from Hong Kong, there would be a general rise in PPP rankings for the listed Chinese cities in the next decade.  In contrast, India's three ranking growth cities would remain in the bottom for PPP for these 75 cities.


In summary, the U.S. as a whole remains an economic bastion with expectations for continued growth and high living standards, but the story for the next decade appears to belong to emerging/newly industrialized economies, particularly China which will see simultaneous growth in population and economy, an economy poised to rapidly surpass that of the U.S.

Remember Tianamen

China's Silencing of Parents

Oh China, you pain me! This is not justice. You placate your people now, only to build future unrest. Companies cutting corners leading to deaths of children are not brought to trial because they are too intertwined with government. It demonstrates fear of exposure and losing control.

These are days of mourning for China, the 12,000 dead and counting. The student bodies crushed in collapsed schools are made almost entirely of the sole children of family (due to the One Child Policy), the absolute devastation to parents cannot be fathomed.

The U.S. is giving $0.5 million to aid the earthquake effort which I believe is too small for the magnitude. The Yunnan province of China alone is donating $0.25 million in aid to the cyclone destruction in Burma - an even more terrifying death toll of over 30,000. Please pray and if possible offer aid, food, medicine.
(I am selfish to mourn more for the Chinese...need to grow in compassion.)


Suffering is not always the act of justice.

"He causes his sun to rise on the evil and the good, and sends rain on the righteous and the unrighteous." -Matthew 5:45b

Tibet as Polarizer

I often criticize the self-serving business practices and dangerous shortcuts that China has allowed or overlooked. This has been not out of malice or scorn, but always in grief towards the Chinese and hope that things will change with exposure to truth. The voice of media is accountability to the people.

I feel the Tibet-Olympics protests is a completely different issue. I cannot stand the irrationality of so many Chinese mainlanders and the hands-off attitude of the Dalai Lama. By consciously refusing to tell the Tibetan riots to stop or refrain from violence, the Lama effectively approves of violence demonstrated by Buddhists and Buddhist monks. Does anyone see the irony in ignoring their own tenets? I question the Lama's motive here even as he continually grins. And we see also the ugly Chinese (akin to the ugly American); the ugly Chinese now takes the form of rabid reactionary hyperpatriotism. If a Chinese person calls for dialog or rationality, many mainland Chinese turn on him or her, an act that confirms their irrationality by threating the victim's life and family.

The Chinese government and Olympic organizers believe the riots were timed to disrupt the 2008 Olympics and the actions of the world confirm it. If spectators continue to threaten the passage of the Olympic flame the ugliness will only be fed. The whole Tibet issue is out of proportion on both sides. Everyone is missing the point.

Don't destroy this event for which athletes world-over have worked so hard to reach.

Nanking

Nanking, the movie, brought me to tears. As you may know it is a documentary on the Rape of Nanking (Nanjing). After seeing this, can one foolishly deny the historicity of this event? It was a history that the imperial Japanese military suppressed (even now so many revisionists deny it). Despite that, eyewitness accounts, photographs and videos of the atrocities survived and even reached the U.S. government of the 1930's. Yet the world stood by and watched the mutilation. I recommend this movie as this must be known.

This provided such rich examination into the human nature; a nature capable of unfathomably evil and so twisted as to call evil, "Good." Evil is a word used often these days, but there is such cruelty that sickens you to exhaustion.

The era encompassing WWII may well consist of the Greatest Generation to behold such vibrant heroes and villains. The rawness of existence and struggle of war is a testing ground that tears away any facade to reveal the beauty or ugliness that we are.

northern redbelly dace
Originally uploaded by Ardea.

China's Export Woes - Seafood
The Washington Post reports China exports farm-raised seafood contaminated with antibiotics and carcinogens despite repeated warnings and even visits to farms. The FDA now requires inspection of shrimp, eel, catfish, basa and dace from China before they are sold.

The chemicals found in the seafood were "nitrofurans detected in shrimp, malachite green detected in dace, eel and catfish and basa, and gentian violet detected in eel and catfish. In addition, fluoroquinolones were found in catfish and basa."

Again, the levels are just detectable but should not be present in the firs place.

Poison for Your Pearly Whites
China is really killing it's international reputation. Toothpaste labeled "Excel" & "Mr. Cool" containing the poison diethylene glycol (DEG) was confiscated in Nicaragua. Not surprisingly the toothpaste was smuggled from Panama (note post regarding poisoning in Panama).

The FDA has issued warning and stopped imports of Chinese toothpaste into the U.S. The Associate Press reports that the former head of the China's FDA was sentenced to death four days ago (Tues., May 29, 2007) for taking bribes to allow companies to bypass drug regulations. A senior official of China said the levels of DEG were not harmful. However, the U.S. FDA rightly notes that such a poison does not even belong in toothpaste.

Come on China!! NY Times investigative journalism reports on a
poison in disguise sold to Chinese citizens and the world. Glycerine, an ingredient used in cough syrup, was replaced with diethylene glycol (DEG, typically used as a coolant and an organic solvent) and sold to pharmaceutical companies. Why the counterfeit? The same stinking reason... to make a larger profit. According to Wikipedia, glycerine costs ~3x more than DEG. There is more to this case than that... unlicensed, unqualified suppliers; forgery; failure to test the material; erasing records; poor labeling; not checking labels; changing labels; changing dates; failure to monitor sources through the supply chain.

Two sources of origin--a Mr. Wang and the Taixing Glycerine Factory--provided glycerine leading to mass poisonings. Given that a person or persons commit crimes in ignorance, ignorance shouldn't necessarily spared them. People died!! Over a hundred. In the Taixing case, the poison was labeled "TD glycerine." No one checked to find out that TD was abbreviation for a Chinese term for "substitute" as in "substitute glycerine." Makes you want to cry over the whole mess.

Via the investigation the path of 40 barrels of diethylene glycol:
Taixing Glycerine Factory manufactured the DEG in Hengxiang, China--> CNSC Fortune Way Company in Beijing, China--> Rasfer International in Barcelona, Spain--> imported by Medicom into Panama--> used to make 260,000 bottles of medication in Panama City--> distributed to the people of Panama

McGraw Hill's Access Medicine reports DEG as:

Highly nephrotoxic. Renal failure, coma, metabolic acidosis, and death have been reported after ingestion... Gastritis, hepatitis, pancreatitis, and delayed neurologic sequelae also reported after ingestion. Metabolic acidosis may be delayed > 12 hours after ingestion.

Treatment: "ethanol and fomepizole may be effective" but Poison Control Center should be contacted immediately.

Speaking of following up on sources I believe the NY Times may have some confusion between ethylene glycol and DEG. Ethylene glycol is used in antifreeze and deicers. Both compounds are described as sweet and highly toxic causes of medical emergencies.

Feed the Sham
There is building evidence that the pets who died from pet food products were a result of melamine scrap–an extracted from coal (yes, the black stuff)–added to pet food & livestock feed by China. Of course the manufacturers there say it's harmless and adding it is a widespread practice.
The most infuriating aspect of this is that melamine is used solely to deceive tests into registering higher protein levels because of melamine's nitrogen content. Buyers in Asia and the U.S. purchase animal feed with this "fake protein" of no nutritional value as the NY Times notes. And why did they start adding melamine scrap? It is cheaper than real protein (Come on, it's scrap!) and they can't get away as easily with adding urea (yes, the stuff in urine) in fooling the tests. Talk about cheap cons.
The Times made note of other China scandals:

China’s food safety scandals have involved everything from fake baby milk formulas and soy sauce made from human hair to instances where cuttlefish were soaked in calligraphy ink to improve their color and eels were fed contraceptive pills to make them grow long and slim

...all for consumption by their citizens and those who buy China's exports.

(image from Washington Post)

West Rises in China's Backyard
An article of the Washington Post describes how China's citizens have been constructing replicas of European and American towns to attract their high-end citizens, burgeoning with new found wealth. Two observations in this article stuck out in their distastefulness.

1. "These so-called theme cities give testament to the great power that has fueled China's economic boom and that the country has become infamous for: making copies." Sadly, there is truth to this. Just look at the U.S. efforts to curb Chinese piracy. But I want to say there was a time when this wasn't their notoriety. Ancient China was know for it's inventiveness (paper, kite, gunpowder, fireworks, compass, porcelain, silk, several martial arts forms, etc). They sell themselves short if they persist in copying. I am sure innovation is surfacing even now, given all the engineering know-how they have aggregated. This is promising but at the same time scary for the economies of other nations. [On a side note Chinese creativity at least is showing itself in the growing international interest in modern Chinese art.]

2. It is a shame to see so many succumb to the idea that Western styles are of somehow better while Eastern styles are inferior and thus expendable. Not only is this the case but shrewd Chinese are capitalizing on this idea to gouge their fellow citizens--consumers with an ignorant concept of the West. "it costs a lot and it's different--so it's good." They want it but they fail to fully appreciate it. It is another example of pearls before swine. But in counterpoint what does this say about the West's fascination/fetish with the East? Each calls the other exotic.

Manchu - A Dying Language in China - at most there are 18 native speakers left, all >80 y/o. Here's the video as reported by New York Times.